Die US-Wirtschaftswebsite Business Insider hat ein Interview mit dem US-Ökonomen und Professor der Yale University Robert Shiller geführt. In dem Interview geht es um die aktuelle Wirtschaftslage, den US-Immobilienmarkt und um die Leistungsfähigkeit der Ökonomie. Gerade zu dem letzten Thema betont Shiller seinen bekannten Standpunkt, dass Ökonomie keine exakte Wissenschaft ist. Er begründet dies wie folgt:
“ I don’t think that the problem is we don’t have the mind of scientists. I think if you bring scientists in they act just like us. Because it’s something different about economics; we’re looking at phenomenon that are human and always changing qualitatively. That’s a problem and I can’t quote probabilities. And this what John Maynard Keynes made as an important part of his theory, which is often neglected; that economists like to build models of people as optimizing decision theorists with decision trees and probabilities at each node, but the problem is we rarely have that. And so we are always in a situation of judgment, and it’s always in the situation in the judgment of the judgments of others and who is speaking the truth and who is dissembling? All this mixture just defies any … I still remark how much variation and opinion there really is. But, you know, I think on the whole it is not a bad thing. And I have debated Jeremy Siegel and I think our debate is productive. I think people probably come out ahead even though they don’t know who is right. At least they’re less likely to put their faith in some extreme view.”
Das Interview kann man durch Klick auf den Cinchcast-Button hören und hier nachlesen.
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