Robert Shiller on Financial Markets (11): Behavioral Finance and the Role of Psychology

by Dirk Elsner on 28. Juli 2013

Material für Finanzbildung ist über das Web so viel verfügbar, dass man heute eher die Qual der Wahl hat. Insbesondere US-Universitäten stellen immer mehr Vorlesungen ins Netz, was ziemlich praktisch sein kann, so auch die Yale Universität. Dort lehrt auch Robert Shiller, dessen Bücher und Gedanken mir gut gefallen. Er befasst sich mit “Behavioral Economics”, einer immer mehr in den Blickpunkt tretenden ökonomischen Forschungsrichtung. Das folgende Video ist Teil einer Reihe über Finanzmärkte aus dem Jahre 2011.

Aus der Beschreibung:

Deviating from an absolute belief in the principle of rationality, Professor Shiller elaborates on human failings and foibles. Acknowledging impulses to exploit these weaknesses, he emphasizes the role of factors that keep these impulses in check, specifically the desire for praise-worthiness from Adam Smith’s The Theory of Moral Sentiments. After a discourse on Personality Psychology, Professor Shiller starts a list of important topics in Behavioral Finance with Daniel Kahneman’s and Amos’s Tversky’s Prospect Theory. The value function and the probability weighting function, as two key components of this theory, help explain certain patterns in people’s everyday decision making, e.g. the existence of diamond ring insurance and airline flight insurance. An in-class experiment underscores the prevalence and importance of the concept of overconfidence. Further topics include Regret Theory, gambling behavior, cognitive dissonance, anchoring, the representativeness heuristic, and social contagion. Professor Shiller concludes the lecture with some perspectives on moral judgment in the business world, addressing shared values and integrity.

  • 00:00 – Chapter 1: Human Failings & People’s Desire for Praise-Worthiness
  • 11:37 – Chapter 2. Personality Psychology
  • 20:14 – Chapter 3. Prospect Theory and Its Implications for Everyday Decision Making
  • 35:53 – Chapter 4. Regret Theory and Gambling Behavior
  • 40:40 – Chapter 5. Overconfidence, and Related Anomalies, Opportunities for Manipulation
  • 57:16 – Chapter 6. Cognitive Dissonance, Anchoring, Representativeness Heuristic, and Social Contagion
  • 01:12:38 – Chapter 7. Moral Judgment in the Business World

Die ganze Reihe gibt es hier:

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